This fight has many side bars, the first being, MONEY. If it doesn't make dollars, it sure as hell won't make sense. Floyd is asking for a 65/35 split...he knows he won't get it, but it is a fair place (at least in his mind) to start. By time this deal is done we are looking at some sort of amicable 45/45 break down with the final 10% going to the victor...( I have heard through a good source that the 10% may be donated to various charities..from both camps), that to me would be a great thing and actually help boxing make a solid comeback. A comeback that is needed, due to the antics as of late in the boxing world.
The second side bar will be the usual fare (venue, referee, gloves, ring size etc.) this, believe it or not is sometimes the hardest aspect to solve. Every trainer has an idea of what he thinks his fighter should have. If this disagrees with the other camp, well then your at square one all over again. So give that area at least a good month to get ironed out and solved.
Another big factor will then be the weight...Pac is sure to say 145..Mayweather's camp will go no lower than 147. Manny will have to say 147..there will be no getting around that. That doesn't mean he has to hit 47, he will come in at 144 or so. Floyd will easily cut the weight to 147. Here is the problem. Floyd on the night of the Marquez fight was reported to weigh 155..that is an 8 pound increase over night. The same will be expected in the Pacquiao fight. Manny will come in fight night at 145 or so..Floyd will have an easy 8-10 pound advantage...so look for the Pacquiao/Roach corner to ask for some amenities here.
As to the fight. As I see it. it is a favorable match up for Manny. Floyd and Manny are equally as fast in hand speed. The difference IMHO lies in the foot speed of Pacquiao and the ability to use that food speed to create angles of opportunity to throw barrages of punches that come from blind angles. In the Cotto fight Manny kept him at bay with strong rapid fire right straights...this backed Cotto up..Manny would then angle off at a 45-degree angle and throw the left hook (the enganyo)..Cotto reacted to the left hook and opened his left gate allowing Manny to see it, pop his hips back and drop a slamming right hook on Cotto's chin, dropping him like a sack of cassava. This to me is the difference. Floyd is fast but he is only so so with his feet. Why, because he is always back pedaling. The back pedaling defensive rolling works against aggressive fighters with no speed. Pacquiao is an aggressive fighter with both speed and power..hence, the back pedaling plays right into the hands of a man who out throws you 2 to 1...and has power in both hands, a chin of iron and SPEED that kills. Now I know Manny will have to eat some punches to get in. He will definitely get busted up. But...Floyd Mayweather can't crack an egg at 147 let alone drop or even hurt Manny. If Cotto couldn't fade Manny's whiskers, Floyd damn sure wont.
My prediction
Pacquiao KO over Floyd Round 7....I got a gut feeling Floyd is gonna get his cherry popped...Hard, fast and bloody!